A brief note on tropical development

 Tropical development this early in the season ranging from the start of hurricane season thru mid July is tough on development.  The underlying reason for this suppression is the following

1. Tropical waves spin off the West African coast at very low latitudes, between 5-10 degrees north as the African monsoon season kicks off.

2.  At the same time these waves are moving off the coast, mid and lower level winds are picking up Saharan dust and carrying it west over the open ocean in the 10-25 degree latitudes.  The dust has the ability to starve the waves of much needed moisture needed for rotational development.

3. Lastly, moving from west to east in the 500-1000mb height would be wind shear.  Wind shear originating in the eastern Pacific and central American regions will tend to blow the tops off any waves trying to west or WNW in an attempt to develop further.

Through the remainder of July and well into late fall, the monsoon season starts to really fire up, lessening winds over the Sahara relax and the dust plumes over the central Atlantic are less pronounced.  Subsequently, wind shear also backs off, at the same time the waters in the Caribbean basin heat up enough to provide warm water for favorable tropical development

This time of year is an exciting one for weather enthusiast like myself.  It really gives one the chance to see the larger atmospheric picture and all the pieces that must come together to allow for an Atlantic hurricane to form.