Tropical Storm Elsa
Current postion: 9.6N 50.2Moving WNW at 25mph
As of 6am this morning Thursday July 1st the 12z model runs have been updated to show TS Elsa is approximately 700 miles east of the windward Islands and showing signs of convection and intensification. All models at this point are tight on approach holding a course south of Hispaniola until reaching western Cuba sometime on Saturday the 4th. As Elsa approaches Cuba there will be an interaction with a cold front swooping in from the west allowing Elsa to move north along this front. Timing will be absolutely key for determining landfall, stronger the front, landfall will be further east along the Florida peninsula. Weaker the front, we could see landfall around Apalachicola or the big bend. Regardless of where she comes ashore, pressure models are showing 979mb which puts the strength at a low end Cat 2 storm.
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